Predictions for Black Friday 2023
It’s common that the media and professional bodies analyse previous years data and conduct surveys to predict the trends that will occur during Black Friday. In November 2023, PWC released the results of their Black Friday survey, which contained the following insights and predictions:
- Interest in Black Friday has dropped from 61% in 2022 to 44% in 2023
- 16% surveyed said they will “definitely buy” vs 24% last year
- The anticipated UK spend for 2023 is £5.6 billion - a noticeable drop from the £7.1 billion forecast in 2022
Additionally, Which.co.uk stated that “Black Friday used to be one of the biggest shopping days of the year. However, its popularity is becoming increasingly mixed, with some people justifiably cynical about whether the deals really are as good as they seem.
Many people still love the opportunity to shop for bargains, though, and Mintel estimates that total sales during Black Friday 2022 reached an estimated £12.3 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year.
Given the cost-of-living crisis, it’s likely that people will be keener than ever for low prices this year, but they may be more selective about what they buy.”
Black Friday 2023 Analysis
In 2022, a sample cohort of Mintsoft users were selected for data analysis, to delve into and get insights on how the cost of living crisis had impacted Black Friday 2022 and their order volumes. For 2023, the entire Mintsoft userbase has been looked at, to explore any growth trends during Black Friday 2023.
Order Volumes
In 2023, Mintsoft customers have processed over 1.8 million orders during the week of Black Friday and Cyber Monday (20th November – 27th November 2023), which is an increase from the same 8-day period across Black Friday in 2022, where customers received 1.5 million orders.
Despite PWC’s survey results showing a decreased public interest in Black Friday, Mintsoft customers have continued to see an increase in orders throughout the period.
In our blog post - will there be 2 Black Fridays, the possibility of Black Friday sales being prolonged in 2023 due to the date that Black Friday fell on, in relation to the common ‘paydays’ in the UK was explored. However, the data shows that while there was a rise in orders throughout November compared to previous months, the peak of orders received were isolated to the Black Friday weekend.
When looking at the order volumes by day for more detail, the data shows that Mintsoft users experienced peak volume during Black Friday itself with over 335,000 orders received, closely followed by Cyber Monday with over 275,000 orders placed.
Order Volume growth vs previous years
By looking at order volumes from 2019, through to 2023, Mintsoft’s cohort data shows continual order volume growth year on year despite the impact of the cost of living crisis, and the prediction that spend during 2023 would be £1.5 billion less in 2023.
2023 saw a 14% order volume increase from 2022, which is slightly lower than the 17% growth seen in 2022, and significantly less than growth rates in both 2020 and 2021. This slowing of year-on-year growth is to be expected as consumers are becoming more comfortable with in-store shopping – post-pandemic, and are being increasingly careful with how they spend their money due to impact the cost of living is having across the UK.
Order volumes by sales channel
By viewing the Mintsoft cohorts order volumes by sales channels, it’s clear that the number of orders received increased across all channels, however the customers own ecommerce websites saw the largest increase, with 47% more orders being received compared to the previous week in November. The most popular marketplace sales channel - Amazon only saw a 30% increase in order volume.
Shipping partners
A Citizens Advice survey undertaken between 19th September and 13th October 2023, showed that UK consumers were generally dissatisfied with the courier services they’d received, and the league table rated the top 5 courier services in the UK, with Amazon Logistics and Royal Mail taking joint top spot in their overall ratings.
Due to this, the data on couriers used by Mintsoft customers was explored, and it showed that the top 3 shipping services used during Black Friday were Royal Mail, DPD and Evri respectively. When comparing this to previous months and years, the top 3 did not alter, with only fluctuations in order volumes to note.
When taking a broader view of the industry, it’s common practice for ecommerce and fulfillment businesses that despatch large order volumes to have pre-arranged contracts and discounted pricing with shipping providers, which could explain why despite rising order volumes, the chosen carriers do not alter.
Can you handle increased order volumes?
Black Friday through to Christmas is the busiest season for any business involved in ecommerce sales and increased order volumes means increased stress if your operations are not well prepared. How did you fair this Black Friday?
If you struggled to keep up this year, it might be time to upgrade your warehouse software to ensure that you thrive during periods of increased orders and can scale effortlessly with any business growth.
If you’d like to check out if Mintsoft is the right warehouse management software for your operations, take a look at our self-guided product tour, or see the software in action by booking a live demo with one of our product experts.
